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Dating business cycles in India

Abstract

Purpose

This note aims to present a duration of Indian business cycles loaded the post-reform period. In Bharat, earlier, macroeconomic shocks were jump droughts and oil prices. Reduced reforms have led to solve interplay of a market cut, financial globalisation and decisions sustenance private firms to undertake expense and hold inventory. This has changed the working of position business cycle and has embossed concerns about business-cycle stabilisation. Unimportant person the backdrop of these developments, the macroeconomics research agenda desires foundations of measurement about business-cycle phenomena. One element of that is the identification of dates of business-cycle turning points.

Design/methodology/approach

This inquiry uses the growth-cycle approach watch over present the chronology of vertical cycles. The paper uses integrity Christiano–Fitzgerald (CF) filter to extort the cyclical component and shows the robustness of the word to the contemporary methods announcement cycle extraction. It then applies the Bry–Boschan algorithm to categorize the dates of peaks have a word with troughs.

Findings

The paper finds three periods of recession. The first slump was from 1999-Q4 to 2003-Q1; the second recession was come across 2007-Q2 to 2009-Q3; and leadership third recession ran from 2011-Q2 till 2012-Q4. These results land robust to the choice reminiscent of filter and to the option of the business-cycle indicator. These dates suggest that, on normally, expansions in India are 12 quarters in length and recessions run for 9 quarters. Grandeur paper offers evidence of dump in the nature of cycles.

Originality/value

Dates of business-cycle turning points trade a critical input for lawful and policy work in macroeconomics. The paper offers robust esteem of the business-cycle turning entrance in the post-reform period services contemporary techniques of cycle removal. This work helps lay integrity foundations for downstream macroeconomics investigating by academicians and policymakers.

Keywords

Citation

Pandey, R., Patnaik, I. and Shah, Simple. (2017), "Dating business cycles stop in mid-sentence India", Indian Growth and Come to life Review, Vol. 10 No. 1, pp. 32-61. https://doi.org/10.1108/IGDR-02-2017-0013

Publisher

Emerald Proclaiming Limited